Future changes in drought characteristics in the Central Black Sea region of Türkiye using HadGEM2-ES climate models and the SPI
Yazarlar (3)
Selçuk Erdem Kurtoğlu
Ondokuz Mayis Üniversitesi, Türkiye
Ondokuz Mayis Üniversitesi, Türkiye
Doç. Dr. Aslı Ülke Ondokuz Mayıs Üniversitesi, Türkiye
Doç. Dr. Utku ZEYBEKOĞLU Sinop Üniversitesi, Türkiye
| Makale Türü |
Özgün Makale
(SSCI, AHCI, SCI, SCI-Exp dergilerinde yayınlanan tam makale)
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| Dergi Adı | Environmental Earth Sciences (Q2) | ||
| Dergi ISSN | 1866-6280 Dergi Bilgileri (2025) | ||
| Dergi Tarandığı Indeksler | SCI-Expanded | ||
| Makale Dili | İngilizce | Basım Tarihi | 06-2025 |
| Kabul Tarihi | 14-06-2025 | Yayınlanma Tarihi | 25-06-2025 |
| Cilt / Sayı / Sayfa | 84 / 13 / 382–0 | DOI | 10.1007/s12665-025-12391-1 |
| Makale Linki | https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-025-12391-1 | ||
| UAK Araştırma Alanları |
Hidroloji
Su Kaynakları
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| Özet |
| This study investigates future changes in meteorological drought characteristics in the Central Black Sea Region of Türkiye (Tokat, Çorum, Amasya, Ordu, and Samsun) for the period 2023--2080. Using precipitation projections from the HadGEM2-ES climate model under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was applied at 1-, 3-, 6-, and 12-month timescales. The analysis reveals a reduction in the frequency of near-normal wet conditions, alongside a noticeable increase in the frequency and severity of dry periods, particularly in the inland provinces. Although some coastal areas are projected to receive more precipitation, drought conditions are still expected to intensify, reflecting complex regional responses to climate change. The results of this study are intended to support long-term water resource management, agricultural planning, and climate adaptation efforts in the region. |
| Anahtar Kelimeler |
| Climate change | GCM | Precipitation | Projection |
BM Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Amaçları
| Atıf Sayıları | |
| Web of Science | 1 |
| Scopus | 1 |
| Google Scholar | 1 |