The Predictability of The Financial Crisis with The Probit Model, Logit Model and Signal Approach: The Case of Turkey
Yazarlar (1)
Prof. Dr. Utku ALTUNÖZ Sinop Üniversitesi, Türkiye
| Bildiri Türü | Tebliğ/Bildiri | Bildiri Dili | İngilizce |
| Bildiri Alt Türü | Tam Metin Olarak Yayınlanan Tebliğ (Uluslararası Kongre/Sempozyum) | ||
| Bildiri Niteliği | Alanında Hakemli Uluslararası Kongre/Sempozyum | ||
| Kongre Adı | XIII. Internaonal Balkan and Near Eastern Congress Series onEconomics, Business and Management Tekirdağ | ||
| Kongre Tarihi | 05-10-2019 / 06-10-2019 | ||
| Basıldığı Ülke | Basıldığı Şehir | ||
| UAK Araştırma Alanları |
Enflasyon
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| Özet |
| In this paper, the predictability of 2008 Crisis is tested by the KLR Signal Approach, and, Probit-Logit Models. Credits in banking system, CPI (Consumer Price Index), export to import ratio, gross reserves, foreign exchange deposit demand, domestic debt stock and automotive production were considered as variables of Probit-Logit models. Following the unit root test, literature was reviewed, and econometric analysis was carried out. According to results of Logit model, increase in gross reserves, increase in export to import ratio and increase in foreign exchange deposit demand but only foreign exchange deposit demand for probit model rise the likelihood of the probability of a given crises signal. For signal approach Model gross credit, the growth rate, sufficiency of reserves, exports, the foreign trade balance, real exchange rate, and, the balance of payments on current accounts were preferred as avriables and … |
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